Settled
Free pick
Small
Atlético Madrid vs Girona
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerCoral
Book odds1.8300
Pinnacle anchor1.7900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)55.87%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.2%
Edge (post-tax)+2.2%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.67%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.83u
Pinnacle closing line1.7000
CLV%+1.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 1.79 fair value indicates Atlético Madrid at 1.83 sits within a reasonable margin of the true probability, with a 2.2% positive edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle's minimal overround and responsiveness to sharp action make it a reliable calibration point for market efficiency. The modest edge reflects a fairly priced home favorite rather than an exploitable mispricing.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.7900 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.8300 |