Settled
Free pick
Solid
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds13.5000
Pinnacle anchor13.0600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)7.66%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.4%
Edge (post-tax)+3.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.07%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line12.6600
CLV%-0.19%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's fair value of 13.06 for a draw represents one of the sharpest consensus estimates available, given their notoriously low margins and professional action. Matchbook's 13.50 odds offer a 3.4% positive edge relative to that fair value after accounting for platform fees, suggesting modest mispricing in favor of the draw outcome. This small but measurable edge indicates the market has underweighted the probability of a stalemate between these two sides.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 13.0600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 13.5000 |