Settled
Free pick
Strong
Elche CF vs Getafe
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetMGM
Book odds3.0000
Pinnacle anchor2.8600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)34.97%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.9%
Edge (post-tax)+4.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.61%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.0200
CLV%-7.89%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 2.86 fair value sits notably below BetMGM's 3.00 offering, creating a 4.9% edge after accounting for tax considerations. Pinnacle's near-zero margin and sharp, syndicated action make their number a reliable anchor for identifying mispriced outcomes in lower-liquidity markets like La Liga. The draw between Elche and Getafe carries sufficient probability cushion at these odds to represent positive expected value from a mathematical standpoint.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 2.8600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.0000 |