Settled
Free pick
Solid
Udinese vs Cremonese
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds3.1500
Pinnacle anchor3.0600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)32.68%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.9%
Edge (post-tax)+2.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.34%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.15u
Pinnacle closing line3.0900
CLV%-3.66%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Cremonese away at 3.15 on Smarkets sits 2.94% above Pinnacle's 3.06 fair value after accounting for the 2% commission, representing a quantifiable positive expectation against the sharpest line. Udinese's home advantage is meaningful but Cremonese's defensive record and recent form suggest the away odds are overpriced relative to true win probability of approximately 32.7%, making this a statistical overlay worth tracking.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.0600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.1500 |