Settled
Free pick
Solid
Atlético Madrid vs Girona
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds1.8400
Pinnacle anchor1.7900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)55.87%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.8%
Edge (post-tax)+2.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.83%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.84u
Pinnacle closing line1.7000
CLV%+1.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Atlético Madrid home win is priced at 1.84 on Marathonbet against a Pinnacle fair value of 1.79, representing a 2.8% positive edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle's odds reflect sharp market consensus due to their low margin business model and high-volume professional action, making their 1.79 anchor a reliable baseline for value assessment. The pricing discrepancy suggests the home selection carries moderate mathematical advantage relative to true probability.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.7900 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.8400 |