Settled
Free pick
Solid
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
Pick details
MarketOver/Under — over_206.5
BookmakerBetMGM
Book odds1.9500
Pinnacle anchor1.8800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)53.19%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.7%
Edge (post-tax)+3.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.98%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.95u
Pinnacle closing line1.8800
CLV%-51.52%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
BetMGM's over 206.5 at 1.95 offers a 3.72% post-tax edge over Pinnacle's 1.88 fair value, indicating the market has underpriced scoring volume in this matchup. The Pistons rank 8th in pace while Cleveland operates 12th, with both teams in the top 15 for offensive efficiency, suggesting the total is set conservatively relative to their combined scoring capabilities. The discrepancy between the sharp Pinnacle line and BetMGM's retail pricing reflects meaningful value for the over.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | totals | over_206.5 | 1.8800 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | totals | over_206.5 | 1.9500 |