Settled
Free pick
Strong
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds3.6000
Pinnacle anchor3.4400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)29.07%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.7%
Edge (post-tax)+4.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.45%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.6800
CLV%-9.02%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's fair value of 3.44 for this draw represents their assessment after processing sharp action and minimal margins, making it a reliable baseline. The Matchbook odds of 3.60 offer a 4.7% edge over that fair value, suggesting the market is underpricing the draw probability relative to Pinnacle's estimate. This discrepancy indicates potential value in the selection given Pinnacle's reputation for efficiency in pricing.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.4400 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.6000 |