Settled
Free pick
Strong
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds2.0600
Pinnacle anchor1.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)51.02%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+5.1%
Edge (post-tax)+5.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.20%
Units (display)2u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.12u
Pinnacle closing line1.9900
CLV%-4.34%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Chelsea's implied win probability at Smarkets 2.06 is 48.5% while Pinnacle's 1.96 fair value implies 51.0%, creating a 2.5 percentage point undervaluation of the home side. After accounting for Smarkets' typical 2% commission structure, the post-tax edge of 5.10% demonstrates meaningful positive expected value on the Chelsea pick relative to the sharp consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.9600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.0600 |