Settled
Free pick
Small
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerNordicBet
Book odds1.7800
Pinnacle anchor1.7400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)57.47%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.3%
Edge (post-tax)+2.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.74%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.6400
CLV%+2.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
NordicBet's 1.78 for Manchester City away carries a 2.30% positive expected value advantage when compared against Pinnacle's 1.74 fair value line, with the discrepancy suggesting market inefficiency favoring the away moneyline. City's superior underlying metrics and historical performance in this fixture provide fundamental support for Pinnacle's pricing, while NordicBet's wider odds create a quantifiable betting edge of approximately 4 basis points per unit wagered.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 1.7400 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 1.7800 |