Settled
Free pick
Small
Elche CF vs Getafe
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetsson
Book odds2.9200
Pinnacle anchor2.8600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)34.97%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.1%
Edge (post-tax)+2.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.27%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.0200
CLV%-7.89%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 2.86 fair value for a draw sits slightly below Betsson's 2.92 offering, creating a 2.1% positive edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle's negligible margins and exposure to sharp money make their odds a reliable benchmark for true probability assessment in this matchup. The modest but consistent edge suggests modest value in backing the draw at Betsson's price.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 2.8600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 2.9200 |