Settled
Free pick
Small
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds1.7800
Pinnacle anchor1.7400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)57.47%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.3%
Edge (post-tax)+2.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.74%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.6400
CLV%+2.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Marathonbet offers Manchester City at 1.78 versus Pinnacle's 1.74 fair value, creating a 2.30% positive expected value margin after accounting for UK betting tax. The 4-tick overround gap suggests soft pricing on the away side, likely due to recency bias following City's recent form volatility, while underlying team metrics and fixture context support a probability closer to Pinnacle's assessment.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 1.7400 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 1.7800 |