Model accuracy + full history, in public

Our probabilities, measured in public.

We don't sell a betting edge — we sell accurate analysis. So we measure what actually matters for a decision-support tool: how well our fair-value probabilities match real outcomes (calibration), shown below in full. Our earlier +EV-pick experiment is kept underneath as a labeled archive — including the honest finding that the playable market is too thin to beat. Nothing hidden, nothing cherry-picked.

Model calibration

Are our probabilities accurate?

✓ Beats the base-rate baseline (significant)

Predicted (avg)

45.7%

Actual win rate

43.9%

Brier score

0.218

lower is better

Base-rate baseline

0.246

beat this = informative

Across 392 settled predictions our fair value said 45.7% on average and 43.9% actually happened — the model's probabilities track real outcomes, and its Brier score beats the base-rate baseline beyond statistical noise — it adds real information. This measures accuracy, not profit: we're a decision-support tool, not a tipster.

PredictedPredicted vs actualn

0.0%–10.0%

pred 7.9%

actual 0.0%

10.0%–20.0%

pred 15.1%

actual 16.7%

20.0%–30.0%

pred 25.5%

actual 24.2%

30.0%–40.0%

pred 34.7%

actual 28.6%

40.0%–50.0%

pred 44.9%

actual 45.1%

50.0%–60.0%

pred 53.7%

actual 51.2%

127

60.0%–70.0%

pred 64.8%

actual 64.7%

70.0%–80.0%

pred 74.5%

actual 75.0%

80.0%–90.0%

pred 84.0%

actual 83.3%

90.0%–100.0%

pred 92.3%

actual 100.0%

Research-phase archive (retired) — our earlier +EV-pick experiment

Below is the full result history from when we tested publishing +EV betting picks. We've since found the playable market for our users (~2 GGL-licensed sportsbooks) is too thin to sustain a betting edge, so we repositioned to analytics. We keep every result here — wins, losses, and the finding itself — because deleting losers is what tipsters do. It is NOT how we measure the tool (see model accuracy above), and it is reported as independent decisions, not per-book rows.

n=1121· early-stage data

Equity curve · All time

-27.13u cumulative

1121 settled · May 17 → Jun 13

Each point is a settled pick's contribution to cumulative net profit in stake units. Wins lift the line, losses drop it. No deletions, no smoothing, no cherry-picking.

Last updated: 2026-06-13 06:01:33 UTC

n=1121· early-stage dataEvery settled result published — wins and losses

Track record builds with each settled pick — current depth: n=1121.

Lock-in significance threshold: 1500 picks. We publish every result regardless of sample size — the receipts are the product.

Returns · live from the ledger

n=1121· early-stage data

7-day ROI

−12.5%

218 settled picks

30-day ROI

−1.8%

1121 settled picks

All-time ROI

−1.8%

1121 settled picks

Longest win run

15 settled picks

Longest lose run

22 settled picks

Units staked

1508

Profit (u)

−27.13u

Hit rate

43.4%

Avg odds

3.10

Avg CLV vs close

−6.7%

our honest edge metric · n=1092 · 12% beat close

Per-sport models

ROI by sport — every model in public.

Each row is the cumulative ROI of every settled pick for that sport. No cherry-picking — losing models are visible too.

Football (Soccer)

n=631 · 34.2% win

−4.9%

Basketball

n=276 · 63.4% win

+14.7%

Baseball

n=202 · 45.0% win

−12.2%

Ice Hockey

n=12 · 41.7% win

−22.3%

Archive note: rows are logged per (match × selection × bookmaker), so the same decision often appears at several books. The honest count is independent decisions, not rows — and most of these book-prices were never playable for a DE user in the first place. Kept in full for transparency.

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Stake	Result	Bankroll
2026-06-04	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Baseball	home Sportsbet AU	1.72	1u	won+0.72u	+23.99u
2026-06-04	New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo Basketball	home Ladbrokes AU	1.25	1u	won+0.25u	+23.27u
2026-06-04	New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Baseball	home Betfair	1.69	1u	lost-1.00u	+23.02u
2026-06-04	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Baseball	home Betfair	1.72	1u	won+0.72u	+24.02u
2026-06-04	Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Baseball	home Betfair	1.51	1u	won+0.51u	+23.30u
2026-06-04	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Baseball	home FanDuel	1.72	1u	won+0.72u	+22.79u
2026-06-04	New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo Basketball	away Betway	4.50	1u	lost-1.00u	+22.07u
2026-06-04	New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo Basketball	home Unibet	1.25	1u	won+0.25u	+23.07u
2026-06-04	Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets Baseball	home Betfair	1.75	1u	lost-1.00u	+22.82u
2026-06-03	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Baseball	away Ladbrokes	2.37	1u	won+1.37u	+23.82u
2026-06-03	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Baseball	away Coral	2.37	1u	won+1.37u	+22.45u
2026-06-03	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Baseball	over_8.5 Bovada	2.05	1u	lost-1.00u	+21.08u
2026-06-03	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Baseball	away Betfair	2.36	1u	won+1.36u	+22.08u
2026-06-03	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball	under_9.5 Bovada	1.91	1u	lost-1.00u	+20.72u
2026-06-03	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball	away Betfair	1.89	1u	won+0.89u	+21.72u
2026-06-03	Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces Basketball	under_175.5 DraftKings	1.95	1u	won+0.95u	+20.83u
2026-06-03	Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces Basketball	away Ladbrokes AU	1.35	1u	won+0.35u	+19.88u
2026-06-03	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball	away Paddy Power	1.90	1u	won+0.90u	+19.53u
2026-06-03	Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies Baseball	away Betfair	2.42	1u	won+1.42u	+18.63u
2026-06-03	Golden State Valkyries vs Portland Fire Basketball	home FanDuel	1.31	1u	won+0.31u	+17.21u
2026-06-03	New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Baseball	away Betfair	3.05	1u	won+2.05u	+16.90u
2026-06-03	Golden State Valkyries vs Portland Fire Basketball	home Betfair	1.30	1u	won+0.30u	+14.85u
2026-06-03	Golden State Valkyries vs Portland Fire Basketball	home Unibet	1.30	1u	won+0.30u	+14.55u
2026-06-03	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Baseball	away Betfair	2.78	1u	lost-1.00u	+14.25u
2026-06-03	Golden State Valkyries vs Portland Fire Basketball	home Ladbrokes AU	1.30	1u	won+0.30u	+15.25u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	away Paddy Power	2.00	1u	lost-1.00u	+14.95u
2026-06-03	Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Basketball	home Unibet	1.10	1u	won+0.10u	+15.95u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	over_160.5 Sportsbet AU	1.90	1u	won+0.90u	+15.85u
2026-06-03	Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Basketball	home Betfair	1.10	1u	won+0.10u	+14.95u
2026-06-03	Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Basketball	under_158.5 Sportsbet AU	1.94	1u	lost-1.00u	+14.85u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	over_160.5 DraftKings	1.87	1u	won+0.87u	+15.85u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	over_160.5 FanDuel	1.89	1u	won+0.89u	+14.98u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	away Sportsbet AU	2.00	1u	lost-1.00u	+14.09u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	away FanDuel	2.00	1u	lost-1.00u	+15.09u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	away Unibet	2.00	1u	lost-1.00u	+16.09u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	away Betfair	1.98	1u	lost-1.00u	+17.09u
2026-06-03	Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Baseball	away Betfair	2.38	2u	won+2.76u	+18.09u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	away Ladbrokes AU	2.02	2u	lost-2.00u	+15.33u
2026-06-03	Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Baseball	home Betfair	1.84	1u	won+0.84u	+17.33u
2026-06-03	Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky Basketball	away DraftKings	2.00	1u	lost-1.00u	+16.49u
2026-06-02	Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Basketball	under_167.5 DraftKings	1.93	1u	lost-1.00u	+17.49u
2026-06-02	Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Basketball	away Betfair	1.66	1u	won+0.66u	+18.49u
2026-06-02	Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Basketball	away DraftKings	1.65	1u	won+0.65u	+17.83u
2026-06-02	Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Basketball	home Betfair	2.46	2u	lost-2.00u	+17.18u
2026-06-02	Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Basketball	away Ladbrokes AU	1.67	2u	won+1.34u	+19.18u
2026-06-02	Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies Baseball	away Betfair	2.90	1u	won+1.90u	+17.84u
2026-06-02	Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Basketball	away BetMGM	1.67	2u	won+1.34u	+15.94u
2026-06-02	Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies Baseball	away Smarkets	2.88	1u	won+1.88u	+14.60u
2026-06-02	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Baseball	away Betfair	2.44	2u	lost-2.00u	+12.72u
2026-06-02	Dallas Wings vs Seattle Storm Basketball	home Betway	1.17	1u	won+0.17u	+14.72u

Showing 270–319 of 1121 (newest first)

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Methodology

How we measure accuracy (calibration + CLV)

Our headline metric is calibration: across our settled predictions, does an outcome we put at probability p actually happen about p of the time? We publish the calibration curve (predicted vs actual) and a Brier score tested against the base-rate baseline, with a statistical-significance gate. It measures accuracy, not profit.

We also show Closing Line Value (CLV) honestly — how our published odds compared to the market's de-vigged close, including when it is negative. Formula: CLV% = (published_odds / closing_odds − 1) × 100

CLV is a transparency receipt from our retired +EV experiment, not a current edge claim: the playable market proved too thin to beat the closing line, so we dropped the profit framing and kept the numbers visible anyway.

Settlement rules

Each pick is settled against one of four outcomes: Won, Lost, Push, or Void.

Won: Selection correct. Profit = (odds − 1) × stake.
Lost: Selection incorrect. Profit = −stake (full loss).
Push: Bet cancelled by bookmaker (e.g. Asian handicap half). Stake refunded. Profit = 0 units.
Void: Match abandoned or selection suspended. Stake refunded. Profit = 0 units.

The pick_results table is database-enforced append-only — UPDATE and DELETE are blocked at the database level, so a settled result cannot be silently amended or removed after the fact.

All profit/loss figures use the tax-neutral formula. If a jurisdiction-specific adjustment applies it appears in the pick's audit page under “Edge (post-tax).”

Sample-size caveat

Statistical significance in sports betting requires a large sample. The conventional threshold for drawing firm conclusions is ~1,500 settled picks — at that depth, a consistently positive ROI is extremely unlikely to be variance alone.

BetEdge launched in May 2026 with a baseline of ~293 free picks. Every result is published regardless of sample depth — the receipts are the product. The n= · early-stage data chip on the dashboard is the honest signal: “real numbers, but interpret ROI with an appropriate confidence interval.”

Lock-in threshold: 1,500 picks. The chip disappears once that milestone is crossed. We do not cherry-pick which results to show.

FAQ

About the track record

How is ROI calculated?

ROI is cumulative profit divided by total stake, expressed as a percentage. Only settled picks are included. Example: if 100 units are staked and 8 units net profit results, ROI is 8%. We report both positive and negative ROI — the ledger is public regardless.

What is CLV?

Closing-Line Value (CLV) is the difference between the odds at which we placed the bet and the closing line at kickoff. Positive CLV means we secured a price the market later agreed was underpriced. It is the sharpest long-term indicator of whether an edge-finding method actually works.

Why does the chart show negative returns sometimes?

Because they happened. We publish every settled pick — winners and losers alike. Variance is real and hiding losing stretches would be dishonest. Full transparency means you see everything, including the drawdowns.

What counts as a settled pick?

A pick where the match has finished and the result was determined by the governing body. Pushes (draws on spread markets) and voids (cancelled matches, walkover results) are excluded from ROI calculations but remain visible in the ledger for completeness.

How do I know these numbers aren't cherry-picked?

Every settled pick is published here with its odds, result, CLV, and profit — winners and losers alike. Results are stored append-only: once a match settles, the row cannot be edited or deleted. We never remove losing picks or hide drawdowns. The complete ledger is on this page exactly as recorded.

BetEdge is an analytics and decision-support tool — not a bookmaker and not a tipster service. We don't accept bets or hold funds. For educational and informational purposes only. 18+.