Model accuracy + full history, in public

Our probabilities, measured in public.

We don't sell a betting edge — we sell accurate analysis. So we measure what actually matters for a decision-support tool: how well our fair-value probabilities match real outcomes (calibration), shown below in full. Our earlier +EV-pick experiment is kept underneath as a labeled archive — including the honest finding that the playable market is too thin to beat. Nothing hidden, nothing cherry-picked.

Model calibration

Are our probabilities accurate?

✓ Beats the base-rate baseline (significant)

Predicted (avg)

45.6%

Actual win rate

43.9%

Brier score

0.219

lower is better

Base-rate baseline

0.246

beat this = informative

Across 394 settled predictions our fair value said 45.6% on average and 43.9% actually happened — the model's probabilities track real outcomes, and its Brier score beats the base-rate baseline beyond statistical noise — it adds real information. This measures accuracy, not profit: we're a decision-support tool, not a tipster.

PredictedPredicted vs actualn

0.0%–10.0%

pred 7.8%

actual 0.0%

10.0%–20.0%

pred 15.1%

actual 23.1%

20.0%–30.0%

pred 25.5%

actual 24.2%

30.0%–40.0%

pred 34.7%

actual 28.6%

40.0%–50.0%

pred 44.9%

actual 45.1%

50.0%–60.0%

pred 53.7%

actual 51.2%

127

60.0%–70.0%

pred 64.8%

actual 64.7%

70.0%–80.0%

pred 74.5%

actual 75.0%

80.0%–90.0%

pred 84.0%

actual 83.3%

90.0%–100.0%

pred 92.3%

actual 100.0%

Research-phase archive (retired) — our earlier +EV-pick experiment

Below is the full result history from when we tested publishing +EV betting picks. We've since found the playable market for our users (~2 GGL-licensed sportsbooks) is too thin to sustain a betting edge, so we repositioned to analytics. We keep every result here — wins, losses, and the finding itself — because deleting losers is what tipsters do. It is NOT how we measure the tool (see model accuracy above), and it is reported as independent decisions, not per-book rows.

n=1131· early-stage data

Equity curve · All time

-8.53u cumulative

1131 settled · May 17 → Jun 13

Each point is a settled pick's contribution to cumulative net profit in stake units. Wins lift the line, losses drop it. No deletions, no smoothing, no cherry-picking.

Last updated: 2026-06-13 22:01:29 UTC

n=1131· early-stage dataEvery settled result published — wins and losses

Track record builds with each settled pick — current depth: n=1131.

Lock-in significance threshold: 1500 picks. We publish every result regardless of sample size — the receipts are the product.

Returns · live from the ledger

n=1131· early-stage data

7-day ROI

−4.8%

218 settled picks

30-day ROI

−0.6%

1131 settled picks

All-time ROI

−0.6%

1131 settled picks

Longest win run

15 settled picks

Longest lose run

22 settled picks

Units staked

1518

Profit (u)

−8.53u

Hit rate

43.4%

Avg odds

3.17

Avg CLV vs close

−6.8%

our honest edge metric · n=1102 · 12% beat close

Per-sport models

ROI by sport — every model in public.

Each row is the cumulative ROI of every settled pick for that sport. No cherry-picking — losing models are visible too.

Football (Soccer)

n=641 · 34.3% win

−2.9%

Basketball

n=276 · 63.4% win

+14.7%

Baseball

n=202 · 45.0% win

−12.2%

Ice Hockey

n=12 · 41.7% win

−22.3%

Archive note: rows are logged per (match × selection × bookmaker), so the same decision often appears at several books. The honest count is independent decisions, not rows — and most of these book-prices were never playable for a DE user in the first place. Kept in full for transparency.

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Stake	Result	Bankroll
2026-05-27	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Baseball	away Betfair	1.84	1u	won+0.84u	-11.90u
2026-05-27	Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins Baseball	away Betfair	2.42	1u	lost-1.00u	-12.74u
2026-05-27	Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins Baseball	under_7.5 BetMGM	1.98	1u	won+0.98u	-11.74u
2026-05-27	Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals Baseball	away Betfair	2.68	1u	lost-1.00u	-12.72u
2026-05-27	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Baseball	under_8.5 Unibet	1.91	1u	won+0.91u	-11.72u
2026-05-27	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Baseball	over_8.5 Matchbook	2.04	1u	lost-1.00u	-12.63u
2026-05-27	San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Baseball	away Smarkets	2.12	1u	won+1.12u	-11.63u
2026-05-27	San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Baseball	over_8 FanDuel	1.95	1u	won+0.95u	-12.75u
2026-05-27	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Baseball	away Smarkets	1.92	1u	won+0.92u	-13.70u
2026-05-27	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Baseball	away Betfair	1.94	1u	won+0.94u	-14.62u
2026-05-27	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Baseball	under_9 Unibet	1.96	1u	lost-1.00u	-15.56u
2026-05-27	San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Baseball	over_8 Unibet	1.93	1u	won+0.93u	-14.56u
2026-05-27	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Baseball	away Betfair	3.15	1u	lost-1.00u	-15.49u
2026-05-27	San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Baseball	home Paddy Power	1.90	1u	lost-1.00u	-14.49u
2026-05-27	San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Baseball	away Betfair	2.16	2u	won+2.32u	-13.49u
2026-05-27	San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Baseball	home Betfair	1.98	1u	lost-1.00u	-15.81u
2026-05-27	San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Baseball	over_8 Sportsbet AU	1.93	1u	won+0.93u	-14.81u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	away Sky Bet	2.63	1u	lost-1.00u	-15.74u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	away Smarkets	2.66	1u	lost-1.00u	-14.74u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	away Matchbook	2.68	2u	lost-2.00u	-13.74u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	over_216 Bovada	1.91	1u	won+0.91u	-11.74u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	away Betfair	2.68	2u	lost-2.00u	-12.65u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	away FanDuel	2.66	1u	lost-1.00u	-10.65u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	away Sportsbet AU	2.66	1u	lost-1.00u	-9.65u
2026-05-27	Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Baseball	home Smarkets	2.84	1u	lost-1.00u	-8.65u
2026-05-27	Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Basketball	away DraftKings	2.64	1u	lost-1.00u	-7.65u
2026-05-27	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Baseball	away Betfair	2.14	1u	lost-1.00u	-6.65u
2026-05-27	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Baseball	away Unibet	2.23	1u	won+1.23u	-5.65u
2026-05-27	Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Baseball	over_8 FanDuel	1.91	1u	won+0.91u	-6.88u
2026-05-27	Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Baseball	home Betfair	2.08	1u	lost-1.00u	-7.79u
2026-05-27	Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Baseball	away FanDuel	1.93	1u	won+0.93u	-6.79u
2026-05-27	Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals Baseball	away Betfair	2.20	1u	won+1.20u	-7.72u
2026-05-25	Lazio vs Pisa Football (Soccer)	away Unibet	6.00	1u	lost-1.00u	-8.92u
2026-05-25	Torino vs Juventus Football (Soccer)	home Smarkets	8.60	2u	lost-2.00u	-7.92u
2026-05-25	Valencia vs Barcelona Football (Soccer)	home Betfair	3.80	2u	won+5.60u	-5.92u
2026-05-25	Getafe vs CA Osasuna Football (Soccer)	draw Ladbrokes	2.75	1u	lost-1.00u	-11.52u
2026-05-25	Espanyol vs Real Sociedad Football (Soccer)	away Marathonbet	3.10	3u	lost-3.00u	-10.52u
2026-05-25	Brighton and Hove Albion vs Manchester United Football (Soccer)	away Ladbrokes AU	3.50	1u	won+2.50u	-7.52u
2026-05-25	Getafe vs CA Osasuna Football (Soccer)	draw Coral	2.80	2u	lost-2.00u	-10.02u
2026-05-25	West Ham United vs Leeds United Football (Soccer)	home Smarkets	1.87	1u	won+0.87u	-8.02u
2026-05-25	Real Betis vs Levante Football (Soccer)	draw Betfair	3.45	3u	lost-3.00u	-8.89u
2026-05-25	Lazio vs Pisa Football (Soccer)	away Betr AU	6.00	1u	lost-1.00u	-5.89u
2026-05-25	Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Football (Soccer)	home Betfair	2.48	2u	lost-2.00u	-4.89u
2026-05-25	Torino vs Juventus Football (Soccer)	away Betfair	1.45	1u	lost-1.00u	-2.89u
2026-05-25	Celta Vigo vs Sevilla Football (Soccer)	home Betfair	1.84	2u	won+1.68u	-1.89u
2026-05-25	Getafe vs CA Osasuna Football (Soccer)	draw Marathonbet	2.80	2u	lost-2.00u	-3.57u
2026-05-25	Lazio vs Pisa Football (Soccer)	under_2.5 Tipico	2.00	1u	lost-1.00u	-1.57u
2026-05-25	Lecce vs Genoa Football (Soccer)	home Smarkets	1.78	2u	won+1.56u	-0.57u
2026-05-25	Fulham vs Newcastle United Football (Soccer)	away Coral	2.37	1u	lost-1.00u	-2.13u
2026-05-25	Torino vs Juventus Football (Soccer)	draw Matchbook	5.10	2u	won+8.20u	-1.13u

Showing 518–567 of 1131 (newest first)

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Methodology

How we measure accuracy (calibration + CLV)

Our headline metric is calibration: across our settled predictions, does an outcome we put at probability p actually happen about p of the time? We publish the calibration curve (predicted vs actual) and a Brier score tested against the base-rate baseline, with a statistical-significance gate. It measures accuracy, not profit.

We also show Closing Line Value (CLV) honestly — how our published odds compared to the market's de-vigged close, including when it is negative. Formula: CLV% = (published_odds / closing_odds − 1) × 100

CLV is a transparency receipt from our retired +EV experiment, not a current edge claim: the playable market proved too thin to beat the closing line, so we dropped the profit framing and kept the numbers visible anyway.

Settlement rules

Each pick is settled against one of four outcomes: Won, Lost, Push, or Void.

Won: Selection correct. Profit = (odds − 1) × stake.
Lost: Selection incorrect. Profit = −stake (full loss).
Push: Bet cancelled by bookmaker (e.g. Asian handicap half). Stake refunded. Profit = 0 units.
Void: Match abandoned or selection suspended. Stake refunded. Profit = 0 units.

The pick_results table is database-enforced append-only — UPDATE and DELETE are blocked at the database level, so a settled result cannot be silently amended or removed after the fact.

All profit/loss figures use the tax-neutral formula. If a jurisdiction-specific adjustment applies it appears in the pick's audit page under “Edge (post-tax).”

Sample-size caveat

Statistical significance in sports betting requires a large sample. The conventional threshold for drawing firm conclusions is ~1,500 settled picks — at that depth, a consistently positive ROI is extremely unlikely to be variance alone.

BetEdge launched in May 2026 with a baseline of ~293 free picks. Every result is published regardless of sample depth — the receipts are the product. The n= · early-stage data chip on the dashboard is the honest signal: “real numbers, but interpret ROI with an appropriate confidence interval.”

Lock-in threshold: 1,500 picks. The chip disappears once that milestone is crossed. We do not cherry-pick which results to show.

FAQ

About the track record

How is ROI calculated?

ROI is cumulative profit divided by total stake, expressed as a percentage. Only settled picks are included. Example: if 100 units are staked and 8 units net profit results, ROI is 8%. We report both positive and negative ROI — the ledger is public regardless.

What is CLV?

Closing-Line Value (CLV) is the difference between the odds at which we placed the bet and the closing line at kickoff. Positive CLV means we secured a price the market later agreed was underpriced. It is the sharpest long-term indicator of whether an edge-finding method actually works.

Why does the chart show negative returns sometimes?

Because they happened. We publish every settled pick — winners and losers alike. Variance is real and hiding losing stretches would be dishonest. Full transparency means you see everything, including the drawdowns.

What counts as a settled pick?

A pick where the match has finished and the result was determined by the governing body. Pushes (draws on spread markets) and voids (cancelled matches, walkover results) are excluded from ROI calculations but remain visible in the ledger for completeness.

How do I know these numbers aren't cherry-picked?

Every settled pick is published here with its odds, result, CLV, and profit — winners and losers alike. Results are stored append-only: once a match settles, the row cannot be edited or deleted. We never remove losing picks or hide drawdowns. The complete ledger is on this page exactly as recorded.

BetEdge is an analytics and decision-support tool — not a bookmaker and not a tipster service. We don't accept bets or hold funds. For educational and informational purposes only. 18+.