Our probabilities, measured in public.

Our headline metric is calibration: across our settled predictions, does an outcome we put at probability p actually happen about p of the time? We publish the calibration curve (predicted vs actual) and a Brier score tested against the base-rate baseline, with a statistical-significance gate. It measures accuracy, not profit.

We also show Closing Line Value (CLV) honestly — how our published odds compared to the market's de-vigged close, including when it is negative. Formula: CLV% = (published_odds / closing_odds − 1) × 100

CLV is a transparency receipt from our retired +EV experiment, not a current edge claim: the playable market proved too thin to beat the closing line, so we dropped the profit framing and kept the numbers visible anyway.

Each pick is settled against one of four outcomes: Won, Lost, Push, or Void.

• Won: Selection correct. Profit = (odds − 1) × stake.
• Lost: Selection incorrect. Profit = −stake (full loss).
• Push: Bet cancelled by bookmaker (e.g. Asian handicap half). Stake refunded. Profit = 0 units.
• Void: Match abandoned or selection suspended. Stake refunded. Profit = 0 units.

The pick_results table is database-enforced append-only — UPDATE and DELETE are blocked at the database level, so a settled result cannot be silently amended or removed after the fact.

All profit/loss figures use the tax-neutral formula. If a jurisdiction-specific adjustment applies it appears in the pick's audit page under “Edge (post-tax).”

Statistical significance in sports betting requires a large sample. The conventional threshold for drawing firm conclusions is ~1,500 settled picks — at that depth, a consistently positive ROI is extremely unlikely to be variance alone.

BetEdge launched in May 2026 with a baseline of ~293 free picks. Every result is published regardless of sample depth — the receipts are the product. The n= · early-stage data chip on the dashboard is the honest signal: “real numbers, but interpret ROI with an appropriate confidence interval.”

Lock-in threshold: 1,500 picks. The chip disappears once that milestone is crossed. We do not cherry-pick which results to show.